Monday, September 15, 2008

HIllary as the White Knight

This article in the Huffington Post explains "Why Replacing Biden With Hillary Makes Perfect Sense for Obama." Unfortunately, the author fails to make mention of the single biggest reason it would never happen: Hillary would never agree to it. And why should she? Obama not only scuttled her plans to become the first woman president, he also declined to give her serious consideration as a running mate despite the fact that nearly everyone on Earth believed she would help the ticket. Even Joe Biden concedes Hillary would have made a better pick.

If HRC were going to come back as a White Knight to rescue this ticket, it would not be as vice president. That ship has already sailed. Of course she would take the top spot, nobody seems to be talking about that possibility.

I don't think Obama is so worried about his chances in November that he would consider changing running mates. However, even if he were that worried, I think he's smart enough to realize that Hilary would never go along with it. There is absolutely nothing in it for her. Best case scenario: the Obama/Hillary wins, and she gets to be vice president to a guy who clearly has no use for her with virtually no chance ever to become president in her own right.

Of course, Hillary's say in the matter is not the only important consideration missing from this article. The notion that a switch from Biden to Clinton would carry no downside for Obama is just silly. In fact, it would be embarrassing for several reasons. First, in the absence of any kind of scandal or other emergency (like an authentic Biden health scare), making the switch would call Obama's judgment and decision-making capabilities into serious question. It would clearly constitute an admission that his initial pick -- arguably his most important executive decision to date -- was a mistake. The move would also demonstrate an unsteadiness that could be attributed to a lack of nerve. People would ask, if three weeks of mediocre poll numbers are enough to get him to hit the panic button as a candidate, how is he going to react to the pressures he's going to face when he's the actual president?

A switch from Biden to Hillary would also enshrine McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as perhaps the greatest single political act in this history of American politics. It would make it appear that McCain's choice of VPs was so manifestly brilliant as to force the Dems to engage in a kind of comical, after-the-fact improvisation in order to try to match it. While I'm sure some people in the media would try to spin such a move as an example of Obama's thinking outside the box, it would really be seen as a desperate effort to copy McCain's outside-the-box thinking.

While it would be fun if this idea were to catch fire in Democratic circles, it's a major pipe dream.

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