Bracing for Obama

Heading into the final weekend of Election 2008, things are not looking so good for John McCain. Although I don't think Obama is headed for a landslide victory -- indeed, he may not win at all -- I find myself devoting more and more of my mental energies speculating on what his victory would mean rather than whether it will come to pass.

Obama has done such a masterly job during the campaign of presenting an image of an inspiring, unflappable moderate, one can really only guess at what kind of president he will try to be. An optimistic (from my perspective) interpretation of his career would be that while he began his career as a race-obsessed extreme leftist, he mainly took that path out of political opportunism. There are actually several arguments supporting that interpretation. For one, when Obama first entered state politics in Illinois, there is no way he could have imagined ever being in a position to run for president. It seems probable he joined Jeremiah Wright's church as a means of establishing credibility in the black community. His other questionable associations may have been similarly aimed at ingratiating himself into left-wing political circles. Despite these troubling associations, it doesn't appear that Obama has ever personally engaged in extreme left-wing rhetoric. Moreover, in his first book, Dreams From My Father, Obama seems to eschew radicalism in its various forms, sometimes in mocking, dismissive tones.

There is also the matter of Obama's legislative career. While he is clearly a staunch liberal, there is no evidence he has ever tried to pull his party to the far left.

All of this suggests the possibility that Obama is, in fact, more or less a mainstream liberal with a genuinely moderate temperament.

As I indicated, that's the "optimistic" interpretation. At the other extreme, one can argue that Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, the socialist New Party membership, "spread the wealth," etc., are all genuine red flags signifying a radical mindset that Obama has taken increasing pains to conceal as he's moved up the ladder of political success. If so, it follows that he will only display his true leftist colors after reaching the top rung on January 20.

I think either interpretation is entirely plausible. Unfortunately, the mere possibility that the latter interpretation is correct is more than enough reason to want to keep Obama out of the White House. Yet, if the polls are correct, the voters either don't recognize the risk or are willing to take a chance.

In acknowledging the possibility that Obama is just a mainstream liberal, I don't mean to imply that the country's fortunes wouldn't suffer as a result of his policies. They would, but the damage is likely to be less severe as compared to a program of radical socialist "reform."

There are mitigating factors, however, even if Obama turns out to be a radical in moderate clothing. First, since the country doesn't believe that's who they are electing, Obama won't have popular support if he seeks to govern as a hard-core leftist. In fact, he would lose a lot of Democratic support in Congress.

Another important factor is whether the GOP succeeds in holding onto at least 40 seats in the Senate. If they do, then Obama will be significantly constrained in his legislative agenda due to the requirement of 60 votes to end a filibuster.

Overall, while an Obama presidency would almost certainly be very bad for the country, it would not necessarily be the catastrophe that I have come to fear. Mainly I take solace in the fact that, however well Obama performs on Election Day, he will not have a mandate for radical change, having presented himself to the voters as a liberal-centrist. Provided Obama realizes this, we'll survive.