Has Obama already peaked?

An interesting dynamic in this presidential race is that it pits an older, thoroughly well-known candidate -- a "grizzled veteran" if there ever was one -- against a sleek and charismatic newcomer. Based on that comparison alone, it would not be unreasonable to predict a landslide victory for Obama. Of course, it's not quite that simple. The grizzled veteran in this case is widely admired, beloved by many, and still obviously at the peak of his influence and abilities. Moreover, youth and inexperience are not necessarily a good things when it comes to running for president.

Still, the big advantage Obama appears to have on paper doesn't seem to exist in reality. The latest national polls give Obama a lead of only one or two points. With the polls apparently tightening, Obama could find himself actually trailing McCain a week from now. This raises the question, can Obama regain lost ground or has he already peaked?

I think a strong argument can be made that Obama's best days in this race are already behind him. His main strengths have been (a) the fact that he personifies the idea of change in this so-called "change" election and (b) his skillful use of rhetoric, with an emphasis on amorphous themes like "hope" and "unity," which have enabled him to appeal to voters across the political spectrum. However, while these strengths are well-suited to create a positive first impression with voters, they may not count for much as the race heads into its final three months and voters develop a clearer picture of who Obama really is.

The perception of Obama as an embodiment of change is clearly an important part of his appeal, but it seems incapable of generating any more support for candidacy than is already reflected in the polls. Those who assign significant value to the idea of electing a president "who doesn't look like the guys on the dollar bills" are presumably already in his corner. Obama has never really tried to enlarge this group by, for example, giving speeches explaining why it would be better to elect an African-American than a European-American. Voters either accept that proposition or they don't, but either way, they're unlikely to change their minds about it now.

Obama's other big strength -- his use of rhetoric to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum -- seems even less likely to serve him going forward. Obama may continue to enthrall crowds with his appeals to "bridge the gaps that divide us," but more and more voters will come to appreciate that he is, in practice, very much a man of the left.

Obama's reliance on the change theme and inspiring rhetoric may in fact prevent him regaining control of the race. Having promoted himself as a new kind of leader that Americans of all persuasion should rally around, he cannot risk overly negative attacks on McCain or overt demagoguery. Such tactics would only help to re-brand him as a typical, old-style politician. Moreover, any major shift of his campaign away from his personal qualities and toward a debate of substantive issues will create more focus on his liberal positions and his lack of substantive accomplishments. He may be like a race car driver who's still in first place but who's running out of gas with no chance to refuel.